Global air cargo volume is expected to increase by 4% in 2025, but the growth rate is expected to slow down in 2026 due to multiple factors
In 2025, global air cargo volume increased by 4% year-on-year (based on Xeneta data and measured in billable weight), with a monthly growth rate of 6% in December. However, freight rates decreased by 4% year-on-year to USD 2.83/kg, showing a trend of "volume increase and price decline". In 2026, the industry consensus growth rate is expected to slow down to 2%-3% (IATA predicts 2.4%), mainly due to multiple factors such as the cooling down of cross-border e-commerce, tightening trade and regulation, increased capacity supply, diversion to maritime transportation, and weakening macroeconomic conditions, leading to a period of moderate growth overall. Next, Baiyunwang will provide you with detailed answers, hoping to be of help to you.
I. Core Drivers and Characteristics of Growth in 2025Demand-side Support: Cross-border e-commerce continues to gain momentum, with demand for high-value, time-sensitive goods related to AI such as semiconductors and servers surging by 20%, becoming a significant increment. The rush to ship before the implementation of US tariff policies drives a phased shift in cargo volume, with shippers preferring the timeliness and stability of air freight during supply chain adjustments.
There is a clear regional differentiation: Asia-Pacific (+8.3%), Africa (+16.6%), and the Middle East (+5.7%) have seen strong growth, while North America has declined by 2.7% due to falling exports. Europe (+4.3%) and Latin America (+2.7%) have experienced moderate growth, and the regional shipping route structure is accelerating adjustment with trade flows.
Imbalance between capacity and price: The annual increase in available capacity (5.1%) exceeded the increase in demand, and freight rates have been continuously declining since the second half of the year. Even though the demand growth rate exceeded the capacity growth rate by 5% in December, the price decline only narrowed without reversing. Shippers' bargaining power has increased, and the market has shifted towards short-term contracts.
II. Six core drag factors for the slowdown in growth in 2026
Demand for cross-border e-commerce cools down: After the United States abolished the tax exemption for small parcels priced under $800, China's exports of cross-border e-commerce products to the United States plummeted by 51%-52% year-on-year in October and November. The European Union imposed a tariff of €3 per parcel on parcels priced under €150 starting in July 2026, and countries such as Japan and South Korea will also implement new regulations in the fiscal year 2026. Coupled with the decline in consumer purchasing power, the growth rate of e-commerce shipments will significantly slow down, whereas e-commerce has been the core engine driving the growth of air freight in the past two years.
Weak trade growth and diminishing policy disruptions: IATA predicts that global trade growth in 2026 will be only 0.5%, significantly lower than the GDP growth rate (3.1%), indicating limited incremental demand for general trade transportation. The rush-to-ship dividend brought about by previous tariff policies is gradually diminishing, and the short-term stimulating effect of supply chain restructuring is weakening. Some cargo volume may revert back to sea transportation.
Rising regulatory compliance costs: Many countries are strengthening tax declaration and compliance requirements for e-commerce, leading Chinese platforms to face high fines for overdue payments. The new EU tariff rules will increase the cost of cross-border parcels and prolong customs clearance time. Rising compliance costs squeeze profits, dampening the willingness of small and medium-sized e-commerce businesses to ship goods, thereby affecting air freight demand.
Capacity supply continues to increase: global flight volume is expected to reach 40.3 million flights in 2026 (up 3.6% year-on-year), with the delivery of wide-bodied aircraft and the recovery of bellyhold capacity, as well as the expansion of the all-cargo aircraft fleet. However, the slowdown in demand growth has further exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand, driving down freight rates. Carriers may be caught in a price war, dragging down the overall industry revenue.
Improved maritime reliability diverts cargo volume: With the improvement in reliability of container shipping companies, some cargo volume that previously shifted to air transportation due to supply chain disruptions (such as non-urgent high-value general cargo) may return to maritime transportation, especially for long-distance transoceanic routes, diverting demand from air transportation.
Macroeconomic and consumption pressures: Although global inflation has declined, it still affects residents' purchasing power. Consumers prioritize spending on essential commodities, and demand for non-essential consumer goods weakens, directly impacting the end-demand for e-commerce and air cargo transportation. At the same time, businesses are cautious in their investments, limiting the growth of demand for high-value industrial product transportation.