Home News East Coast freight rates return to $10000! The European line has been continuously declining

East Coast freight rates return to $10000! The European line has been continuously declining

2026-09-22 10:02

The east-west shipping market has significantly differentiated and entered a structural bipolar pattern

In mid to late September 2026, the global east-west main container shipping routes will exhibit an extreme "ice and fire" trend, with freight rates on the trans Pacific US route continuing to rise, while freight rates on the Asia Europe route are accelerating their decline. The two core trade routes will have completely opposite market trends, and the differentiation trend has been maintained for seven consecutive weeks. The latest Drewry World Container Freight Index (WCI) data clearly confirms this trend, with 40 foot container freight rates from Shanghai to New York breaking through the 10000 yuan mark, setting a new high in nearly two years, while the weekly decline in freight rates on major European routes such as Shanghai to Rotterdam continues to widen. For domestic freight forwarders and export shippers, the current sea freight market has long bid farewell to the traditional unified law of "peak season generally rising, off-season generally falling". The core focus is no longer on whether the sea freight peak season has ended, but on the underlying logic of the differentiation of the US and European routes, as well as how to reasonably plan the subsequent shipment rhythm and avoid supply chain risks based on differentiated market conditions.

Europe route

Strong increase in US freight rates, coupled with tight cabin space and normalization of high priced booking

The current trans Pacific route continues its strong upward trend, and the price increase is sustainable and stable, rather than a short-term market fluctuation. According to the latest WCI data released by Drewry on September 17th, the spot freight rate for a 40 foot container from Shanghai to New York rose 7% per week, climbing to $10394, breaking through the critical threshold of $10000 again after the pandemic subsided in July 2022. At the same time, the US West Coast route has also risen, with Shanghai to Los Angeles freight rates increasing by 5% month on month, reaching $7712/FEU. The entire trans Pacific route's price increase cycle has lasted for seven weeks, and the market resilience far exceeds industry expectations.

Compared to the rise in freight rates, the more challenging issues in the current US shipping market are the scarcity of cabin space, unstable shipping schedules, and significant premium on actual transaction prices. According to industry media "The Loadstar" on September 18th, driven by the urgent need for pre holiday stocking, a large number of shippers actively accept high priced bookings to lock in stable cabin space and avoid cargo delays. Currently, the actual spot transaction prices on the US route are generally higher than the official freight rate index, and some orders have a premium of nearly $1000. While demand remains high, shipping companies continue to proactively regulate capacity and reduce effective cabin space. According to Drury data, the planned number of empty flights on the trans Pacific route next week will reach 9, further increasing from 8 this week. Under the continuous imbalance of supply and demand, the market has experienced a phenomenon of "real-time changes in quotations, and no available cabin space in a flash". The entire process of customer inquiry, confirmation of booking, and shipment involves risks of price and schedule changes. Once encountering container rejection or ship delays, it is easy to miss overseas terminal sales nodes.

Asia Europe freight rates accelerate downward trend, capacity reconstruction suppresses market conditions

In sharp contrast to the strong market trend on the US route, the freight rates on the main Asia Europe routes continue to be under pressure and the decline continues to widen, resulting in a continued weak market trend. According to the latest statistics from Drewry, the freight rates of core routes have fallen across the board, with the 40 foot container freight rate from Shanghai to Rotterdam plummeting 9% in a single week to $3626/FEU, and the downward trend is still continuing; The freight rate for the Mediterranean route from Shanghai to Genoa fell by 5% in a single week, to $4016/FEU. The Asia Europe and Mediterranean routes also weakened, indicating a clear signal of market cooling. The seven week market divergence has completely broken the linkage trend between the east and west air routes, highlighting the completely different supply and demand patterns of the two major air routes.

The core cause of the continuous decline in freight rates on the Asia Europe route is the structural restructuring of transportation capacity brought about by the recovery of the Red Sea Express. In the past two years, due to the geopolitical security crisis in the Red Sea, the vast majority of Asia Europe shipping routes have been forced to detour around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, significantly extending transportation routes and reducing ship turnover efficiency. Shipping companies need to deploy more ships to maintain basic schedules, and the effective market capacity has been tight for a long time, supporting high Asia Europe freight rates. With the recent reassessment of route risks by some shipping companies and the gradual resumption of navigation on the Suez Canal, transportation routes have been significantly shortened, ship turnover efficiency has significantly improved, and effective market capacity continues to be released. Against the backdrop of a lack of synchronized growth in European terminal import demand, the increase in transportation capacity supply directly disrupts the original supply-demand balance and continues to suppress freight rate trends. Although the number of air routes on the Asia Europe route will increase to 4 next week, a significant increase compared to 1 this week, the regulation of transportation capacity is limited and cannot reverse the overall trend of declining freight rates. At the same time, the progress of the restoration of the Red Sea route is still constrained by the regional security situation, and the Asian and European markets have not fully returned to normal, with uncertainties remaining in the future.

The core logic of dual line market differentiation and the essential differences in the market

The current bipolar trend of the US and European routes is essentially dominated by two completely independent supply and demand logics, and the traditional peak season pattern is no longer suitable for the current maritime pattern. The core contradiction in the trans Pacific US shipping market is the combination of strong rigid demand and insufficient effective cabin space. The dual demand for stocking up during the US fourth quarter holiday and shipping before China's Golden Week holiday is concentrated, and shipping companies continue to control empty flights and tighten capacity, resulting in a shortage of cabin space. Shipowners actively accept high price lockdowns, driving freight rates to continue to rise.

The core contradiction in the Asia Europe shipping market is the loose supply of transportation capacity coupled with weak terminal demand. The resumption of the Red Sea route has brought about an increase in transportation capacity, completely changing the previous tight transportation situation caused by detouring around the Cape of Good Hope. The supply-demand relationship has been re balanced, and freight rates have naturally entered a downward channel. This also means that the current maritime market has entered a stage of refined differentiation, and there is no unified cycle of ups and downs. The market trend of each route depends entirely on its own supply and demand, capacity regulation, and changes in geographical routes, which puts higher demands on the market judgment ability of freight forwarders and shippers.

Suggestions for enterprise shipment layout under the dual line differentiation pattern

In response to the current differentiated maritime market, domestic freight forwarders and export enterprises need to abandon the unified shipping thinking, accurately grasp the two key time windows, and formulate differentiated shipping strategies. In terms of the US route, the overseas sales node in the fourth quarter is approaching, and the demand during the peak season has not yet subsided. The risk of tight cabin space and delayed container dumping is prominent. Enterprises cannot simply compare prices, but need to lock in cabin space and fixed shipping schedules in advance, and prepare alternative logistics plans to avoid the risk of cargo delays and missing the sales peak season.

In terms of the Asia Europe route, market freight rates continue to decline and transportation capacity is gradually easing. Enterprises can flexibly arrange shipments based on the timeliness of goods. For goods without urgent delivery needs, it is advisable to observe the market trend moderately and choose the opportunity to lock the cabin at a low price; For urgently needed goods, smooth booking and shipment can be made without excessive panic. Overall, the subsequent competition in the maritime market is no longer about single pricing ability, but rather the ability to accurately analyze and judge changes in transportation capacity, market trends, and shipping rhythms of different routes. Only by accurately adapting to the dual line differentiation pattern can logistics costs be effectively controlled and supply chain risks be avoided.

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