International sea freight rental and premium double skyrocketed: 770000 daily rent+3% premium
As the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz are spreading to the market at an unprecedented speed.
The latest data shows that the daily rental price of VLCC has soared to $770000, and the 318000 ton oil tanker "Kalamos" built in 2010 was sold at a daily price of $770000, setting a new record in recent years. At the same time, the war risk premium has skyrocketed from 0.1% -0.15% before the conflict to 1%, with ships involving US Israeli interests even reaching as high as 3%. This means that the premium cost for a single voyage of a VLCC worth $100 million can reach as high as $3 million.
At the market level, data from Caixin showed that Brent crude oil futures fell below $108 per barrel, with intraday gains narrowing to 16%. WTI crude oil futures fell below $104 per barrel, with intraday gains narrowing to 14%. It is reported that the G-7 is preparing to jointly release emergency oil reserves in an attempt to cool down the soaring energy prices.
But in the Persian Gulf, alternative scenes are unfolding. Due to force majeure and export cuts announced by multiple countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, some oil tankers that were originally planned to load were not idle, but were converted to floating storage by ship owners on site. At present, multiple VLCCs have started oil storage operations for 30 to 90 days in the waters west of the Strait of Hormuz, with daily rental fees ranging from 400000 to 500000 US dollars. This' capacity freeze 'is exacerbating the shortage of effective capacity and forming a self reinforcing trend of rising freight rates.
The industry generally believes that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, the global crude oil trade flow will be forced to reshape. Asian buyers will accelerate their shift towards alternative oil sources such as the US Gulf and West Africa, which means a structural increase in demand per ton nautical mile and will also lay the groundwork for the next cycle of tanker freight rates in the coming months.